Saied Shokoohi

In the wake of the American withdrawal from Iraq, many pundits argue that the U.S. pullout would pave the way for Iran to increase and strengthen its clout and influence in Iraq, thus trying to meddle with Iraq’s internal affairs and foreign policy in order to fill the power vacuum.

In this regard, former U.S. Republican presidential candidate Senator, John McCain, has said; the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq is a 'victory for Iran.' The prevailing view in America is that Iran now has fewer obstacles in its bid to dominate Iraq. But this argument is not necessarily true. Experience shows that Iran will behave rationally without trying to interfere in Iraq’s internal affairs.

Iran can achieve the goal of strengthening its influence in Iraq by applying “smart power”, quoting Josef Nye’s term, without provoking others. Although trying to build and accumulate power is an acceptable behavior from all actors in the International arena, Iranian policy-makers seem to avoid any problematic policy.

 Considering that Iran and U.S. are at loggerheads since more than three decades ago, their game in the region, at best, is the “zero- sum game”. It is logical to anticipate Iran to embrace the opportunity, but it absolutely will not make the mistakes that the U.S. and other regional rivals anticipate it to do.

Furthermore, the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, from the geopolitical and strategic prism, poses many threats to Iran’s national security which is underestimated in many of these analyses. It looks like a double edged sword with its opportunities and threats aimed at Iran.

 Being cognizant of its sensitivity, policy and behavior in Iraq, Iranian leaders eschew any quarrelsome deeds. In many occasions they have announced that they will help Iraqi counterparts to build a powerful and stable central government without interfering in their internal affairs.

If history is any guide, being adjacent to Iran, Iraq has great impact on Iran’s national security especially from a geopolitical point of view. Given the historical, religious, cultural and ethnic backgrounds, even Iraq’s internal affairs have impact on Iran’s national security and any chaos or uproar in their country can affect Iranians. For this reason, besides the regional and trans-regional reasons, Iran’s leaders prefer to see a solid and central government in Baghdad. Furthermore, that’s the only way to keep foreigners off- stage.

To achieve the goal of enhancing influence and building power in the region, the most suitable and fruitful strategy for Iran is the smart power; a combination of the hard and soft power. Considering Iran’s great potential, both in hard power and soft power in Iraq, it yields in fruits and Iran will achieve more influence and power in Iraq through these friendly policies.

This strategy has some crucial benefits: First, it will capitulate the goal of enhancing influence and clout via peaceful means. Second, it won’t provoke other actors. Third, it won’t embroil Iran in costly and troublesome interactions. Finally, it is long lasting and more reliable.

Iranian’s cultural, religious and historical connections with the Iraqi people, composes an invaluable asset to engage in using soft power. In this regard, Iranian Shiites could be an inspiring source to the Iraqi Shiite majority ruling the country.

By mutual cooperation and coordination, these assets could pave the way for closer and friendlier relations and also ease the pain of the eight-year Iran-Iraq War which was imposed by the regime of Saddam Hussein. Meanwhile, having friendly relations could broader and expand the presence of Iranian companies in the process of reconstructing Iraq.

On the other hand, Iran’s hard power can play a constructive role in the war-torn country. Fatigued from nine years of war and destruction, Iraq now needs a reliable economic partner for re-construction.  Although, compared to the western countries, Iran cannot play a pioneering role in Iraq’s constructions, one should still bear in mind that the people of Iraq still maintain negative attitudes towards western countries, especially through remembering the casualties of their assaults during their nine year presence in Iraq.

Thus, that calls for a suitable area that Iran could play a constructive role in, especially in the fields of Energy, food, agricultural and etc. An example of which is the recent contract between an Iranian company and Iraq’s ministry of electricity to build a power plant in Iraq. This kind of engagement could be more positive and fruitful than Iran’s direct interfering in Iraq’s domestic affairs. Iranian leaders are smart enough to not play the quarrelsome role of a big brother in Iraq being well aware of the power of nationalism in Iraq.

Contrary to many observers’ beliefs, who argue that the U.S. troop's withdrawal would persuade Iran to strengthen its clout in Iraq, Iran would only try to help the Iraqi people to have a solid and stable government--without meddling in its internal affairs. Through smart power, this aim is achievable with less cost and more benefits.

Saied Shokoohi is a visiting research fellow at the Institute for Middle East Strategic Studies. He is also a Ph.D. candidate at Allameh Tabatabaee University in Tehran.